## ENGINEERING ANALYSIS INC.

TORNADIC RISK ASSESSMENT

Tornadoes
represent the most violent meteorological phenomena known to man, each year
resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage and approximately
one hundred fatalities. Extensive data for the contiguous United States, plus
Hawaii, have been collected by the National Weather Service, dating from 1950
and updated annually. A statistical analysis of this data can provide a better
understanding of the risk posed by tornadoes for a specific geographic region.
To carry out such an analysis we have developed the Site Assessment of Tornado
Threat (SATT) software. A key features
of this model is the use of the concept of the Annual Coverage Fraction (ACF)
as a measure of tornado probability. **Notice should be taken that this definition
of tornado probability is consistent with the FEMA probability
model.** By means of
the SATT software we have calculated and tabulated the probability of tornadoes
for the twenty most tornado prone states (excluding Alaska) on both an annual and a month-by-month
basis and also for the twenty most tornado prone cities on both an annual and a month-by-month
basis. We have also developed color-coded contour maps of tornado
probability for various states including Alabama and Georgia, as well as a color- coded map
of tornado probability for the United States. A number of technical papers have been published dealing with our
work in this area. For a listing of customers we have a table available.

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